Yemen:  Until 2018, a number of scenarios could be listed in the war on Yemen. It is now difficult for me, as a writer and researcher, after the middle of 2022, to suppose more than one scenario, which is in fact not a scenario but rather a forced path that the war must take. It is for Sana'a to declare victory over the coalition that "was" led by Saudi Arabia.

We must say two identical and opposite things at the same time, the current truce, which cuts off its sixth month, or the war resumes. There is only one winner in both cases; Sana'a, not Riyadh or Washington. 

In the current results table, the war elected a revolutionary authority in the capital, Sana’a, that the international community does not want to recognize, but in return it recognizes an “authority” that Saudi Arabia created in an abnormal way. The “Leadership Council” led by Al-Alimi is not a legitimate, legal, or constitutional authority, nor is it a revolutionary authority, just as the international community has for eight years recognized a figurehead president confined to Riyadh, Abd Rabbo Mansour. However, in the end, does international recognition change anything from reality? Except that it is trying to isolate the de facto authorities of the Yemeni state in the capital, Sana’a.

In other words, Saudi Arabia lost two types of scramble towards it in the aggressive war on Yemen: 

A regional and international scramble to search for gains, even at the expense of destroying a country and people called Yemen. This happened in the first months, and perhaps even years, of the 2015-2016 war.

A limited local scramble, parties and forces (religious, sectarian) and some tribal sheikhs also to search for future gains in a scene they "assumed" for Yemen after the fall of the revolution led by Ansarullah and the tribes.

These two types fell even from the same Saudi mentality. There is a difference between Mohammed bin Salman saying about the war in Yemen “This is my war” in 2016 during an interview with Al-Arabiya, and saying about the war itself in 2022, it is a war of the Yemenis!!

The same equation is reversed for Yemen, as the Geneva, Biel, and Kuwait negotiations on Yemen in 2015 seemed to be local, Yemeni, without the objection of the negotiating team that came from Sana’a, despite the harsh external military intervention led by Saudi Arabia and the United States of America.

Now, after such a long time, it is difficult for the chief Yemeni negotiator, Mohammad Abdulsalam, to be told to sit at the Yemeni-Yemeni negotiating table. Saudi and American negotiators should sit at the table in front of him. The war is a regional and international one. The reason is quite clear: the coalition lost the war, and there is no need for negotiations that do not meet the conditions of the victor.

I conclude this article with a fact that can open doors for other written research that Washington and Riyadh are begging for an additional extension of the truce, and Muscat and Tehran are mediators.

An article written by Talib Al-Hasani (translated by Almasirah Net English)