Middle East: American experts have emphasized that the options available to President-elect Donald Trump's administration to address the escalating challenges in the Red Sea, which now represent the most urgent issue for the US, are not significantly different from those available to the Biden administration. This indicates no guaranteed path to success in halting or mitigating Yemen’s support operations without first ending the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

According to Newsweek, changing the status quo in the Red Sea is the most pressing challenge the Trump administration will face when it takes office in January, among all other Middle East issues.

This assessment stems from the strategic implications of the failures highlighted by the Red Sea conflict, which has dealt a major blow to US dominance, influence, and reputation. The defeat suffered by the US Navy in Yemen has been described by an Australian studies institute as one of the “most pivotal moments in the history of naval warfare.”

Despite the Pentagon spending over $1 billion to counter Yemenis attacks, Newsweek reports that it has failed to alter their calculations. The magazine further notes that the Biden administration seems to have essentially conceded to the current state of affairs in the Red Sea, leading to increasing pessimism among military officials and observers about the possibility of altering the status quo.

Trump’s Limited Options and Additional Risks
All potential options available to Trump's administration carry significant risks and lack guarantees of success.

A report published by the Norwegian-British TradeWinds news outlet quoted several American experts, who noted the difficulty in predicting how Trump’s administration will address the Red Sea situation. Brian Carter, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, explained that Trump's approach to Yemen in his previous term was not markedly different from Biden's, underscoring the limitations of options regardless of who is in the White House.

Carter suggested that the US should focus on “restoring deterrence by targeting sites to prevent further maritime attacks” and disconnecting free zones in Yemen from the SWIFT banking system. However, these proposals are not new and were unsuccessfully attempted by the Biden administration.

On the military front, US officials have admitted to a complete "intelligence blackout" regarding targets in Yemen. The commander of the Fifth Fleet acknowledged the inability to locate a decisive “center of gravity” for strikes, rendering traditional deterrence strategies ineffective.

Efforts to leverage the SWIFT system also fell flat. The Biden administration had tried to pressure Saudi Arabia into escalating financial restrictions through Yemen’s central bank in Aden. However, Yemeni leadership responded decisively, forcing Saudi Arabia to backtrack swiftly and even threatening to cut support to its own allies if they persisted.

Carter himself conceded that “all these options carry substantial risks,” further affirming their impracticality.

John Hoffman, a defense and foreign policy researcher at the Cato Institute, echoed this sentiment, stating: “Trump does not seem to have a concrete action plan regarding the Red Sea and Yemen.” Hoffman argued that both Trump and Biden should abandon unnecessary skirmishes with the "Houthis", address the root causes of regional tensions, and recognize the futility of the current policies.

Ending the war on Gaza remains the only viable and guaranteed option for the Trump administration. Searching for alternative strategies to sustain escalation in the region has proven futile, as the US has shown an inability to manage the consequences of such conflicts by force, most visibly in the Red Sea battle.

As a result, American media has increasingly adopted the term “dead end” to describe the US's options regarding the Red Sea and Yemen’s support for Gaza—an evolution from their earlier characterization of “defeat.” This reflects the reality that a change in administration at the White House will not significantly alter the situation.

Translated by Almasirah English website